In Brief: Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A Statistical Model to Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity
An alternative 24-h statistical hurricane intensity model is presented and verified for 13 hurricanes during the 2004–05 seasons. The model uses a new method involving a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to select from a collection of multiple regression equations. These equations were developed to predict the future 24-h wind speed increase and the 24-h pressure drop that were constructed f...
متن کاملRefinements to Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction from 1 December
[1] Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane predictions have been issued by the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University since 1984, with early December forecasts being issued every year since early December 1991. These forecasts have yet to show real-time forecast skill, despite several statistical models that have shown considerable hindcast skill. In an effort to improve both hind...
متن کاملSeasonal hurricane forecast skill and relevance to the (re)insurance industry
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): The ACE of a season is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated maximum sustained velocity of every active tropical storm (wind speed 35 knots (65 km/h) or higher), at six-hour intervals. The result is then multiplied by 10-4 to make the numbers more manageable. The unit of ACE is 104kn2. Seasonal hurricane forecasts are eagerly anticipated each year ...
متن کاملHurricane track forecast cones from fluctuations
Trajectories of tropical cyclones may show large deviations from predicted tracks leading to uncertainty as to their landfall location for example. Prediction schemes usually render this uncertainty by showing track forecast cones representing the most probable region for the location of a cyclone during a period of time. By using the statistical properties of these deviations, we propose a sim...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union
سال: 2007
ISSN: 0096-3941
DOI: 10.1029/2007eo510003